* https://apac1.apps.cp.thomsonreuters.com/Apps/econ-polls?RIC=NZGDPQ%3DECI
quarter-on-quarter poll data
* https://apac1.apps.cp.thomsonreuters.com/Apps/econ-polls?RIC=NZGDPA%3DECI
year-on-year poll data
* GDP data due 2245 GMT Wednesday (1045 NZT Thursday)
WELLINGTON, Sept 15 (Reuters) – New Zealand is set to record
its sharpest quarterly contraction and officially enter
recession when it releases second quarter economic data this
week, reflecting the full impact of coronavirus lockdowns on
business.
The median forecast of economists polled by Reuters showed
GDP shrinking 12.8% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to
June, following a 1.6% decline in the previous quarter.
That would put New Zealand in its first technical recession,
defined as two straight quarters of contraction, since 2010,
although an easing in coronavirus curbs has aided a quick
recovery. GDP is expect to fall 13.3% year-on-year.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s government, which faces an
election on Oct. 17, has said there will be “large drop” in
activity in the June quarter, but that success in suppressing
the virus locally is likely to help recovery prospects.
New Zealand was the only country to stay free of COVID-19
for more than 100 days, largely due to a strict lockdown in
April and some parts of May that forced almost everyone to stay
at home and businesses to shut.
The measures battered economic activity, but it has since
bounced back despite a second wave of infections in its biggest
city, Auckland.
That has prompted some analysts to temper their gloomy
forecasts, though they acknowledge the predictions are open to
revisions as there was uncertainty around the measurement of
data during the lockdown.
ANZ Bank cut its quarterly forecast to a 12% decline from
17.5%, but said the focus has shifted to the third quarter,
which would bring “the sharpest quarterly economic expansion
we’ll ever see.”
“Market forecasts have clearly been trending towards a
smaller negative number in recent weeks, as the data showed that
the economy bounced back readily from the lockdown,” said
Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon.
The central bank is expected to hold rates at its meeting on
Sept 23 after re-affirming last month that the cash rate will
remain at 0.25% until early 2021.
($1 = 1.5399 New Zealand dollars)
(Reporting by Praveen Menon; Editing by Sam Holmes)
(([email protected]; +6448028163; Reuters
Messaging: [email protected];
Twitter: https://twitter.com/pravemn))
Keywords: NEWZEALAND ECONOMY/GDP (POLL)
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