MLB DFS Picks and Analysis 10/9: The Grind Down

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, October 9 . This article will break down the numbers for every single game and […]

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, October 9 . This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays


MLB DFS Analysis: (RHP | -155)

12200 DK ( 24.40% of cap) / FD ( 0.00% of cap) / Y ( 0.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Rating Statcast Metrics Percentile
PlateIQ: Overall 74.41 K 82
PlateIQ: Strikeout 88.42 BB 86
PlateIQ: Contact 37.74 xWOBA 79
PlateIQ: Production 63.97 xISO 30
PlateIQ: Discipline 78.82 Hard Hit 22
PlateIQ: Context 49.99 xERA 79
PlateIQ Rating is a matchup score. 50 is average. See what’s baked in with PlateIQ Premium.
MLB DFS Stats and Pitch Arsenal
PlateIQ Category Rating Pitch Type Percent
Games 12.00 4-Seamer 59
SIERA 2.76 Sinker 0
K% 38.00% Cutter 0
BB% 5.90% Slider 24
GB/FB 0.98 Changeup 4
HR/9 1.36 Curve 14
Hard% 34.80% Splitter 0
See More Stats Made Simple for NYY vs. TBR : Try PlateIQ Premium

The Yankees were the only team that needed to win that actually did it yesterday, so we have just one baseball game on the schedule for today. will be pitching on 3 days’ rest for New York after striking out 8 in this spot back on Monday. Cole’s 32.6% strikeout rate this season was lower than that of , but the Rays are a better strikeout matchup. Tampa has whiffed at a 26% clip against righties since the beginning of last season, and I’m expecting Cole to pitch deeper into this game after having had an extra day off. Cole is pretty clearly the priority pitching option in this game, especially with the Rays likely taking an all-hands-on-deck approach here with their bullpen. The salaries are comparable enough on DraftKings to where Cole over is a pretty easy call, and he’s someone worth building around in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Cole should have the longer leash tonight, so he’s the clear-cut top option on this slate.

MLB DFS Analysis: (RHP | 132)

11400 DK ( 22.80% of cap) / FD ( 0.00% of cap) / Y ( 0.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Rating Statcast Metrics Percentile
PlateIQ: Overall 69.04 K 92
PlateIQ: Strikeout 81.29 BB 15
PlateIQ: Contact 38.49 xWOBA 60
PlateIQ: Production 51.80 xISO 44
PlateIQ: Discipline 69.21 Hard Hit 24
PlateIQ: Context 47.68 xERA 61
PlateIQ Rating is a matchup score. 50 is average. See what’s baked in with PlateIQ Premium.
MLB DFS Stats and Pitch Arsenal
PlateIQ Category Rating Pitch Type Percent
Games 11.00 4-Seamer 63
SIERA 3.12 Sinker 0
K% 35.70% Cutter 0
BB% 7.70% Slider 0
GB/FB 1.26 Changeup 4
HR/9 1.14 Curve 33
Hard% 33.30% Splitter 0
See More Stats Made Simple for NYY vs. TBR : Try PlateIQ Premium

has had just 2 days off after pitching 5 innings and throwing 93 pitches on Tuesday. Glasnow’s 38.2% K-rate was among the highest in baseball this season, and he did whiff 10 Yankees just the other day. Kevin Cash is famous for doing wonky things with his bullpen, and I’d be legitimately surprised if Glasnow wound up pitching all that deep into this game. He has on 3 days of rest plus that stable of guys that throw 100 coming out of the bullpen. I don’t mind Glasnow if you want to pair him with Cole in an attempt to get as many raw points as possible, but it’ll cost you. Glasnow is priced as though he’ll be making a normal start today, and I’m just not convinced that’s the case.

Quick Breakdown: Glasnow isn’t the worst try in tournaments, but I’d much rather prioritize Cole given their comparable price tags tonight.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: New York Yankees Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary Y Salary wOBA ISO Hard% Barrels/PA
9000 7500 NA 0.388 0.199 21.90% 2.90%
8200 9000 NA 0.381 0.273 13.40% 11.60%
6200 7000 NA 0.337 0.2 13.80% 6.90%
9400 9500 NA 0.379 0.23 16.70% 18.40%
8400 8000 NA 0.37 0.245 13.10% 13.10%
4000 5500 NA 0.341 0.235 13.60% 4.20%
7400 6500 NA 0.352 0.23 14.20% 3.70%
7200 6000 NA 0.368 0.212 17.40% 6.90%
5000 5000 NA 0.293 0.26 10.50% 13.50%
Break down every NYY vs. TBR hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

The Yankees did damage when they did manage to make contact against Glasnow in Game 2, scoring 4 runs on 3 hits with a couple of homers. Glasnow has fared better against left-handed hitters over the past couple of seasons, which plays right into the hands of a righty-heavy Yankee lineup. It’s a tricky spot considering we’re going to see a cavalcade of Rays bullpen arms, but the Yanks are the preferred offense with the higher team total (4.12) in this game. I don’t know what’s wrong with , but he didn’t hit a home run last night. What gives? Stanton and rate out as the most appealing hitters in this game, and you can get Judge at a pretty decent discount tonight on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

, , and would be next on my list, followed by and . All of these guys save for LeMahieu have posted ISOs over .200 against right-handed pitching since the beginning of 2019. Even (.268) has done so in a limited sample. Cole + Yankee bats will be the popular build tonight, so be sure to differentiate those stacks with some of the cheaper bats like Higashioka, , or some inexpensive Rays.

Optimal Plays – , , , ,

Secondary Plays – , , ,

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: Tampa Bay Rays Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary Y Salary wOBA ISO Hard% Barrels/PA
7000 7000 NA 0.361 0.248 11.90% 7.10%
Brandon Lowe 8000 7500 NA 0.367 0.26 14.30% 17.50%
Randy Arozarena 8600 8500 NA 0.413 0.321 14.00% 14.00%
Ji-Man Choi 4200 4500 NA 0.341 0.194 13.30% 3.40%
5200 4500 NA 0.309 0.197 15.20% 9.30%
6000 4500 NA 0.299 0.126 12.90% 3.70%
6600 4500 NA 0.322 0.179 11.80% 9.90%
4000 4500 NA 0.288 0.164 13.20% 6.30%
4000 4000 NA 0.241 0.161 7.80% 15.80%
Break down every NYY vs. TBR hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

is , but we have seen him give up quite a few home runs over the past couple of seasons. Cole has struggled a bit more against lefty power bats, and Randy Arozarena and Ji-Man Choi both took him deep in Game 1. Choi has owned Cole over the course of his career, which means nothing, but Choi is a cheap lefty power bat that should hit near the top of the lineup. I’d expect him to be one of the most popular bats on the slate at that absurd price, but it’s hard to argue against it. is the top overall option from Tampa Bay, and he may go overshadowed with people hungry to get to the Yankee sluggers instead. Brandon Lowe has been miserable in this series, but he’s still right behind Meadows in terms of priority as another power-hitting lefty.

, , and will have the platoon advantage against Cole, as well, while is another dirt-cheap bat with some pop. I’d rather get to Cole than stack the Rays, but so will everybody else. Going all-in on Tampa hitters while pulling the Cole fade gives you a more contrarian look than the majority of the field, which is the name of the game on a slate like this. Prioritize the lefties if you’re taking this path.

Optimal Plays – , Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe

Secondary Plays – , , , , Randy Arozarena

Stackability – YELLOW

Statcast Data referenced above per baseballsavant.com

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