Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Consumer Spending Negative For The Second Week In A Row

Purpose

I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to market.” In general, I go in order of long-leading indicators, then short-leading indicators, then coincident indicators.

A Note on Methodology

Data is presented in a “just the facts, ma’am” format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized.

Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless otherwise linked.

A few items (e.g., Financial Conditions indexes, regional Fed indexes, stock prices, the yield curve) have their own metrics based on long-term studies of their behavior.

Where data is seasonally adjusted,

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U.S. Consumer sentiment climbs to six-month high in September

U.S. consumer sentiment increased more than expected in early September to a six-month high as Americans grew more upbeat about the economy’s prospects.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index for September advanced to 78.9 from a final August reading of 74.1, according to data released Friday.

The median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 75.

The measure of expectations rose 4.8 points to 73.3, also a six-month high, while a gauge of current conditions increased 4.6 points to 87.5.

Just 16% of respondents said they expected the economy to worsen in the year ahead, the smallest share since 2015 and consistent with an economy and labor market that are slowly recovering. The gauge of sentiment, however, still remains below its prepandemic levels and Americans were less upbeat about the prospects for their finances.

The S&P 500 swung between gains and losses as investors searched for new catalysts to

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Consumer credit applications fall by a significant margin

Applications for consumer credit in the country dropped by 50 percent in the second quarter of the year compared with a jump of 14 percent in the first quarter, according to the latest data from the Credit Bureau of Cambodia (CBC).

CBC is the leading provider of credit information, analytical solutions and credit reporting services to banks, microfinance institutions, lending companies, credit operators, and consumers in Cambodia. It commenced operations in 2012.

Consumer credit applications represent the intention of consumers to acquire credit in the form of personal finance, credit cards or mortgages, said CBC.

It said that in the second quarter of this year across the country, personal finance applications dropped by 50 percent, credit card applications were down by 43 percent and mortgage applications fell by 51 percent.

Quarter one 2020 personal finance applications increased by 13 percent, credit card applications rose by 13 percent, and mortgage applications

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EPAM Continuum Releases 2020 Consumer Banking Report Offering Insights Into Evolving Customer Behaviors, Expectations & Motivations

Key findings from surveys in Hong Kong, Singapore, the U.S., and UK reveal opportunities, challenges, and inevitable changes ahead for traditional financial institutions, fintech and neobanks

NEWTOWN, Pa., Sept. 17, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — EPAM Continuum, the integrated business, technology, and experience consulting practice of EPAM Systems, Inc. (NYSE: EPAM), today announced the release of its Consumer Banking Report 2020. Surveying 4,500 people across key banking regions including the United Kingdom, the United States, Hong Kong and Singapore, the report explores evolving behaviors, expectations and motivations, with key findings suggesting that, despite recent innovations in financial services, the fundamental behavioral drivers of customers remain largely unchanged. For any radical change to happen, banks need to become more ubiquitous and have the ability to seamlessly integrate with the platforms and services that make up their customers’ personal digital ecosystem in order to bring banking to them – not

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U.S. Consumer Sentiment Climbed to a Six-Month High in September

(Bloomberg) — U.S. consumer sentiment increased more than expected in early September to a six-month high as Americans grew more upbeat about the economy’s prospects.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index for September advanced to 78.9 from a final August reading of 74.1, according to data released Friday. The median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 75.

The measure of expectations rose 4.8 points to 73.3, also a six-month high, while a gauge of current conditions increased 4.6 points to 87.5.



a close up of text on a black background: U.S. consumers more upbeat but confidence well below pre-pandemic level


© Bloomberg
U.S. consumers more upbeat but confidence well below pre-pandemic level

Just 16% of respondents said they expected the economy to worsen in the year ahead, the smallest share since 2015 and consistent with an economy and labor market that are slowly recovering. The gauge of sentiment, however, still remains below its pre-pandemic levels and Americans were less upbeat about the prospects for their finances.

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Consumer sentiment posts rise

story.lead_photo.captionA shopper enters a clothing store Tuesday in Boston’s Newbury Street shopping district. Consumer sentiment increased in early September to a six-month high, according to a report from the University of Michigan.
(AP/Steven Senne)

U.S. consumer sentiment increased more than expected in early September to a six-month high as Americans grew more upbeat about the economy’s prospects.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index for September advanced to 78.9 from a final August reading of 74.1, according to data released Friday. The median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 75.

The measure of expectations rose 4.8 points to 73.3, also a six-month high, while a gauge of current conditions increased 4.6 points to 87.5.

Just 16% of respondents said they expected the economy to worsen in the year ahead, the smallest share since 2015 and consistent with an economy and labor market that are slowly recovering. The gauge of

Read More

The Almighty Consumer Will Stumble in the Coming Year, Expert Says


Illustration by Kate Copeland

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What Will Be the Biggest Financial Surprise Over the Coming Year?

Liz Ann Sonders is chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab.

I think there’s a built-in assumption that we’re going to get some sort of new fiscal relief package. So, I think clearly it would be a surprise if we didn’t. If Congress waits until just before election to push it through, I think you’ll see that delay in the consumption numbers, even if it doesn’t cause some kind of market rout. The previous combination of the $1,200 checks and the enhanced unemployment insurance has been a lot of the fuel under some of the strong consumption trends we’re seeing. And for now, the numbers have kind of hung in there, and that’s probably because consumers are still willing to spend. I just don’t think that can last.

Read All the Guide to Wealth

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With CFPB in ‘retreat,’ California eyes state consumer finance agency | Article

The state has begun reorganizing the agency that regulates its financial institutions and this week passed a bill that may grant the agency powers to protect state consumers similar to those wielded by the CFPB.

“Providers of financial products and services to California consumers should buckle their seatbelts. … The CCFPL will expand the DFPI’s jurisdiction to debt collectors and other previously unlicensed entities. The dual focus on consumer protection and innovation will draw the agency’s focus to fintechs.”

Nancy Thomas, Partner, Morrison & Foerster

California’s financial regulatory agency, the Department of Business Oversight (DBO), will be renamed the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI) and may soon receive new enforcement responsibilities under the California Consumer Financial Protection Law (CCFPL), which passed the state legislature Monday.

The CCFPL bill (AB 1864) now awaits the signature of Newsom, who advocated for the new law and included additional

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U.S. consumer sentiment climbs to a six-month high in September

U.S. consumer sentiment increased more than expected in early September to a six-month high as Americans grew more upbeat about the economy’s prospects.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index for September advanced to 78.9 from a final August reading of 74.1, according to data released Friday. The median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 75.

The measure of expectations rose 4.8 points to 73.3, also a six-month high, while a gauge of current conditions increased 4.6 points to 87.5.

Just 16% of respondents said they expected the economy to worsen in the year ahead, the smallest share since 2015 and consistent with an economy and labor market that are slowly recovering. The gauge of sentiment, however, still remains below its pre-pandemic levels and Americans were less upbeat about the prospects for their finances.

The S&P 500 swung between gains and losses as investors searched for new catalysts to

Read More