The stock market is more at risk on a Trump win than on a Biden win


We have a lot of news this week—see the Econoday calendar—but the norm is to attend to the ADP private sector jobs report on Wednesday, the Challenger jobs report on Thursday and the bazooka, the Sept monthly jobs report on Friday. While the numbers are still grim and recovery is still seen as stalling, the proof of the pudding will come on Oct 13-14 when Amazon holds one of its Prime Days. If US consumers are still greedy for material goods, that’s when we see it.

All the same, the divide between the Haves and the Have-Nots is growing. Here’s a sobering piece from the WSJ: “More homes are going dark as moratoriums on utility shut-offs end. Of the 36 states that issued moratoriums on utility shut-offs for people who couldn’t pay their bills since the pandemic started, 14 have already expired. Between now and mid-October, an estimated 24

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Trades mixed as Sino-American tension offsets stimulus, Brexit hopes

  • Asian shares refrain from tracking Wall Street gains as mixed headlines from China probe the bulls.
  • China bought only one-third of promised US goods through August, cites Yuan’s strength as export negative.
  • US House Democrats unveil plans to break the stimulus deadlock, EU also eased Brexit stance ahead of today’s key talks.
  • First round of American Presidential Election debate, negotiations in Brussels will be crucial.

Asian equities fizzle upside momentum as Beijing’s failures to comply with the trade deal probe the early-day risk-on mood before the European traders kick-start Tuesday’s work. While portraying the same, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan marks 0.30% intraday gains whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 also adds around 0.35% to 23,595 by the time of the press.

Not only the dragon nation’s failures to comply with the trade deal but comments in the China Daily, criticizing the Trump administration’s “Sinophobic policies”, also flash the

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US election is affecting not only US stock market volatility


We have a slew of US data today but nothing that turns on the FX crowd—the trade balance (August), inventories, Case-Shiller for months ago, and Conference Board consumer confidence. The event of the day doesn’t come until after the close—the first presidential debate.

The FT reports the US election is affecting not only US stock market volatility, but also the VIX equivalent for the EuroStoxx. See the chart. The biggest risk is a disputed election that can drag on for weeks and need a Supreme Court decision—a Supreme Court newly populated with a justice Trump appointed only weeks before and the Senate will have approved only days before.

Unless Biden wins in a landslide of in-person voting and maybe not even then, Trump is definitely going to contest the election. Why anyone is talking about it as a risk and not a certainty is unclear. For one thing, he

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Goldman Joins JPMorgan in Building Singapore Forex Trading Hub

Apple Inc. Opens New Store at Marina Bay Sands

Photographer: Bryan van der Beek/Bloomberg

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is joining the likes of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BNP Paribas SA in setting up a foreign-exchange trading and pricing platform in Singapore.

The platform will go live in the first quarter of next year, with Singapore becoming the company’s fourth global currency pricing engine, Goldman said in a statement. The others are in London, Tokyo and New York.

“We continue to actively develop our presence in Singapore and have seen consistent growth of our franchise here over a number of years in both FX and broader global markets,” E.G. Morse, Chief Executive of Goldman Sachs Singapore Pte., said in the statement.

Pecking Order

Average FX daily trading volume in Singapore is biggest in Asia

Source: Bank for International Settlements


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Exchange rate remains stable at forex markets, interest rate cut could further weaken naira

Nigeria’s exchange rate at the NAFEX window remained stable to close at N386/$1 during intraday trading on Friday, September 25.

Also, the naira remained stable for second consecutive day, closing at N467/$1 at the parallel market on Friday, September 25, 2020, as the naira could weaken further at the black market following cut in interest by CBN.

Parallel market: At the black market where forex is traded unofficially, the Naira remained stable against the dollar to close at N467/$1 on Friday, according to information from Abokifx, a prominent FX tracking website. This was the same rate that it was exchanged for on Thursday, September 24.

READ: Has the President erred in stopping CBN from funding food imports?

Currency developments

  • The local currency has strengthened by about 7.8% within the last one week at the black market, as the CBN introduced some measures targeted at exporters and importers, in order to
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Knowing the Key Differences Between Forex and Stock Options

Many investors will automatically think of stocks when options are mentioned in a conversation. Options are contracts that grant the owner the right but not the obligation to buy or sell 100 shares of an underlying stock for a set price by an expiration date – for a premium that must be paid regardless of whether the option is ever actually exercised or not. There are many strategies for investing with options and many involve hedging against a loss on other investments.

Forex options are similar to stock options in many ways but there are some differences that investors must be aware of before entering this sector of the currency market.

There are two basic options, the call (where the price of the security is expected to rise prior to expiration date) and the put (prices are expected to drop before the expiration date). When an investor purchases a call

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Dollar declines on hopes for a US fiscal deal, ahead of presidential debate

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 29:

Stock markets remain cautiously optimistic and the dollar is on the back foot, extending the reversal from last week’s moves. Investors are eyeing a slew of Federal Reserve speeches, fresh hopes related to Brexit, and the first presidential debate.

The dollar is edging lower in a risk-on mood. Talks between Republicans and Democrats continue in Washington, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi offering a new deal worth $2.2 trillion. The fresh hopes replace the narrative that the focus on nominating a new Supreme Court Justice would divert energy from further relief.

Gold has been consolidating around $1,880, looking for a new direction. 

Investors – especially pound bulls – are also content with reports of some progress in Brexit trade talks. The EU is reportedly ready to work on a legal agreement. 

Reported coronavirus deaths have hit the grim milestone of

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Costco Stock Is Definitely One to Buy on the Earnings Dip

InvestorPlace – Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips

On Thursday Sept. 26, Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) reported earnings. The retailer delivered a sizzling result, but that didn’t translate to success for the stock price. Costco stock ultimately fell about 1.3% on Friday, but was down almost 3.5% at one point.

Source: ilzesgimene /

I could see that type of sell-the-news reaction to the quarter if the broader market was under severe pressure. After all, the market has had some pretty rough days as of late. However, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.26% and the S&P 500 rallied 1.6% on the day!

So, why the selloff? 

I’m not sure, and to be honest, I don’t really care. What I care about is the quarter, and the quarter was great. In turn, that’s got us taking another look at COST stock. 

Lights Out Earnings

Earnings of $3.13 per

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Dollar steadies as markets await Trump-Biden debate

TOKYO (Reuters) – The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as traders looked out to the first U.S. presidential debate and developments on the U.S. stimulus bill.

FILE PHOTO: 3D printed percentage symbols are seen in front of dollar banknotes in this illustration taken May 25, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

The dollar index stood unchanged at 94.150, drifting away from a two-month high of 94.745 reached last week, as stock markets made solid gains partly on upbeat China data with Wall Street rebounding following last week’s selloff.

All eyes are on the first U.S. presidential election debate where Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump will square off later in the day (Wednesday 0100 GMT).

“If the debate puts Trump on the back foot and Biden keeps his lead, I think it could lead people to let go of their dollars,” said Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist

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Bond Market and Stock Market Disparity Warning; Trade Yen

The 10 year Treasury Note and 30 year Treasury Bond are at support while the S&P 500 is at resistance (and has been for weeks). The disparity between rates of change in the Bond and S&P 500 has reached a level that historically signals a pending stock market top, bond market bottom, or both. Higher stocks/lower bonds is deeply embedded in collective market psychology which increases the risk of reversal and a return to risk on/off conditions. Trade setups are presented to take advantage.

10 year Treasury Note Future


Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Interested in automated trading with Mirror Trader?

While a significant top may be in place for US Treasury Notes and Bonds, the market is at as a good place as any for a bounce to materialize. The ‘place’ is defined by the trendline that extends off of the 2009 and 2011 lows in

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